# Table 5: Portfolio-Wide Multiple Testing Correction

**Total hypothesis tests**: 40
**Bonferroni-Holm (FWER α=0.05)**: 11 rejected
**Benjamini-Hochberg (FDR q=0.05)**: 23 rejected

| Rank | Paper | Finding | p-value | Holm adj. p | BH adj. p | Category |
|---:|:---|:---|---:|---:|---:|:---|
| 1 | 3. Causal ID | BJS ATT post-opening | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 2 | 10. Trilemma | Z₁ → FO | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 3 | 12. Net/Gross | Z₁ → income balance | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 4 | 10. Trilemma | Eurozone Z_dev → CA | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 5 | 9. Extensions | Z₁ → income balance | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 6 | 9. Extensions | Twin deficit × OADR | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 7 | 8. Crises | old_dep → CA reversal | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 8 | 7. Fiscal Dominance | Expenditure−revenue asymmetry | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 9 | 12. Net/Gross | FX reserves Z₁ | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 10 | Monetary | Structural break pre-GFC Z₁ | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 11 | 12. Net/Gross | S-I suppression amplification | 0.0010** | 0.0400 | 0.0036 | Robust (survives FWER) |
| 12 | 6. Japanification | Inflation channel Z₁ | 0.0020** | 0.0580 | 0.0067 | Survives FDR only |
| 13 | 2. Gravity Bilateral | KAOPEN interactions (joint) | 0.0030** | 0.0840 | 0.0086 | Survives FDR only |
| 14 | 6. Japanification | Z₁ → J-index | 0.0030** | 0.0840 | 0.0086 | Survives FDR only |
| 15 | Monetary | Z₁ → 10y rate level | 0.0040** | 0.1040 | 0.0107 | Survives FDR only |
| 16 | 8. Crises | old_dep→banking income interaction | 0.0050** | 0.1250 | 0.0125 | Survives FDR only |
| 17 | 4. Capital Deepening | Z₁ → I/Y | 0.0060** | 0.1440 | 0.0133 | Survives FDR only |
| 18 | 11. Automation | Z₁ → I/Y | 0.0060** | 0.1440 | 0.0133 | Survives FDR only |
| 19 | 4. Capital Deepening | Rule_of_law × Z₁ | 0.0070** | 0.1540 | 0.0147 | Survives FDR only |
| 20 | Monetary | Z₁ → 3m rate level | 0.0080** | 0.1680 | 0.0160 | Survives FDR only |
| 21 | Monetary | Z₁×Δrate transmission | 0.0150* | 0.3000 | 0.0273 | Survives FDR only |
| 22 | 5. Asset Returns | Z₁ → 10y bond yield | 0.0150* | 0.3000 | 0.0273 | Survives FDR only |
| 23 | 1. Multilateral | Z₁ → CA/GDP (parsimonious) | 0.0170* | 0.3060 | 0.0296 | Survives FDR only |
| 24 | 8. Crises | old_dep → banking (non-OECD) | 0.0350* | 0.5950 | 0.0583 | Nominal only (p<0.05) |
| 25 | 10. Trilemma | Z₁ → peg (full) | 0.0400* | 0.6400 | 0.0640 | Nominal only (p<0.05) |
| 26 | 3. Causal ID | Triple-diff Z₁×Post | 0.0490* | 0.7350 | 0.0754 | Nominal only (p<0.05) |
| 27 | 1. Multilateral | Z₁×KAOPEN → CA/GDP | 0.0510 | 0.7350 | 0.0756 | Marginal |
| 28 | 7. Fiscal Dominance | Primary Bohn β | 0.0600 | 0.7800 | 0.0857 | Marginal |
| 29 | 11. Automation | Z₁ → K/Y (full) | 0.1000 | 1.0000 | 0.1379 | Not significant |
| 30 | 9. Extensions | Z₁ → ΔKAOPEN | 0.1220 | 1.0000 | 0.1627 | Not significant |
| 31 | 1. Multilateral | Z₁ → CA/GDP (baseline) | 0.2380 | 1.0000 | 0.3071 | Not significant |
| 32 | 5. Asset Returns | Housing (+ GDP/pc) | 0.2930 | 1.0000 | 0.3636 | Not significant |
| 33 | 12. Net/Gross | KAOPEN sign-flip on CA | 0.3000 | 1.0000 | 0.3636 | Not significant |
| 34 | 7. Fiscal Dominance | r-g channel | 0.4400 | 1.0000 | 0.5176 | Not significant |
| 35 | 4. Capital Deepening | Z₁ → ΔK/L (full) | 0.4530 | 1.0000 | 0.5177 | Not significant |
| 36 | 11. Automation | Z×KAOPEN → I/Y (full) | 0.5000 | 1.0000 | 0.5556 | Not significant |
| 37 | 6. Japanification | Growth channel Z₁ | 0.5600 | 1.0000 | 0.6054 | Not significant |
| 38 | Monetary | Phillips × Z₁ | 0.6200 | 1.0000 | 0.6526 | Not significant |
| 39 | 10. Trilemma | Z₁ → MI | 0.8000 | 1.0000 | 0.8205 | Not significant |
| 40 | 5. Asset Returns | Z₁ → equity cap rate | 0.9200 | 1.0000 | 0.9200 | Not significant |

## Survival Rate by Paper

| Paper | Total tests | Holm reject | BH reject | Nominal only | Not sig |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 3. Causal ID | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 10. Trilemma | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 12. Net/Gross | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 9. Extensions | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 8. Crises | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 7. Fiscal Dominance | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Monetary | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 6. Japanification | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 2. Gravity Bilateral | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4. Capital Deepening | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| 11. Automation | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 5. Asset Returns | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 1. Multilateral | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 |

## Interpretation

Of 40 major hypothesis tests across 12 papers:
- **11** (28%) survive the strictest FWER correction (Bonferroni-Holm)
- **23** (57%) survive FDR correction (Benjamini-Hochberg)
- **3** (8%) are nominally significant but do not survive MHT correction
- **14** (35%) are not significant even at nominal α=0.05

The strongest surviving findings (Holm-adjusted p < 0.01):